Probability and Statistical Analysis

Aegis specializes in probability modeling applied in litigation. Cases range from simply demonstrating a statistical difference between two groups, to analyzing a complex sequence of events involving censored data, to mining data from large databases.Our probability modeling work includes:

• Developing a method for positive identification of shotgun shell evidence using a mixture of pellet alloys, which resulted in opening a high-profile cold murder case.¹

• Developing a Markov model of internet file sharing demonstrating repeat infringements of music copyrights by internet service provider (ISP) customers, resulting in first loss by an ISP of safe harbor provisions of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA).²

• Bayesian models providing evidence in criminal cases.

1 Murder of Sid Wells by Thayne Smika, Case No. P83-7907, prosecuted in Boulder, Colorado. 

2 BMG Rights Mgmt. (US) LLC v. Cox Communs., Inc., No. 1:14-cv-16112015, U.S. Dist. LEXIS 161091 (E.D. Va. Dec. 1, 2015).